Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | STAN -600 CAL +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -12.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -10.9 (-4.9) | 135.9 (+10.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -8.7 (-2.7) | 134.0 (+12.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -10.9 (-4.9) | 134.8 (+11.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -11.2 (-5.2) | 135.0 (+11.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 5-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#54) | -0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#58) | -0.15 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#58) | -0.04 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#37) | 0.474 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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