Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -400 UPST +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +36 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -10.2 (+25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+32.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -8.5 (+27.5) | 137.7 (+30.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -9.3 (+26.7) | 133.9 (+34.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -8.6 (+27.4) | 135.7 (+32.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -8.3 (+27.7) | 137.6 (+30.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 5-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#185) | -8.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#204) | -1.98 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#206) | -2.25 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#152) | 0.455 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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