Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MRMK -120 SFPA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRMK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +5 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | MRMK -3.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-25.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -2.8 (+2.2) | 138.2 (-25.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -2.4 (+2.6) | 136.3 (-23.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -3.3 (+1.7) | 138.0 (-25.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -2.6 (+2.4) | 138.2 (-25.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | MRMK 71 – 60 SFPA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MRMK 74 – 55 SFPA |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MRMK 75 – 68 SFPA |
| Feb 4, 2023 | MRMK 70 – 66 SFPA |
| Feb 5, 2022 | MRMK 65 – 64 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-9 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#231) | -4.8 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#160) | -0.56 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#168) | -0.48 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#180) | 0.475 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRMK | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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