Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | DEN +170 UND -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | UND -4.1 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -4.3 (+1.3) | 142.9 (+24.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -3.5 (+0.5) | 140.0 (+27.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -4.7 (+1.7) | 144.5 (+22.5) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -5.1 (+2.1) | 146.9 (+20.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UND 83 – 67 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | DEN 98 – 79 UND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | UND 93 – 86 DEN |
| Feb 14, 2025 | DEN 68 – 64 UND |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UND 95 – 70 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-19 | 9-17 |
| Conference | 1-13 | 8-8 |
| Home | 2-10 | 5-3 |
| Away | 0-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -15.8 (#338) | -9.1 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.65 (#348) | -1.93 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -6.05 (#347) | -2.80 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.331 (#346) | 0.423 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEN | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 29.1 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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