Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -250 MTST +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +8 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -10.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+41.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -10.2 (-2.2) | 142.8 (+41.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -7.2 (+0.8) | 144.7 (+39.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -8.9 (-0.9) | 146.2 (+37.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -9.4 (-1.4) | 142.7 (+41.3) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-6 | 13-10 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Home | 11-0 | 5-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#87) | -1.5 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#194) | 0.27 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#178) | 0.05 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#128) | 0.523 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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