Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -175 TNTC +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -6.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -4.2 (-0.2) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -4.3 (-0.3) | 137.5 (-5.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -4.6 (-0.6) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -4.6 (-0.6) | 139.4 (-7.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SEMO 89 – 73 TNTC |
| Dec 19, 2025 | TNTC 85 – 74 SEMO |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SEMO 83 – 69 TNTC |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 70 TNTC |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SEMO 88 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 5-22 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#284) | -11.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.94 (#313) | -2.54 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#309) | -3.12 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#315) | 0.415 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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