Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +600 USU -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +16 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -13.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -10.5 (-5.5) | 132.1 (-10.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -10.5 (-5.5) | 130.0 (-8.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -10.2 (-5.8) | 132.5 (-10.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -10.9 (-5.1) | 132.6 (-10.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-4 |
| Home | 7-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#253) | 10.9 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#172) | 1.42 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#175) | 1.74 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#182) | 0.559 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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