Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | CAL +220 STAN -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +15 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -7.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.3 (-9.7) | 135.0 (-10.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -5.1 (-9.9) | 131.8 (-6.8) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -5.6 (-9.4) | 133.9 (-8.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -5.9 (-9.1) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 5-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#165) | 9.7 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#180) | 1.62 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#176) | 2.16 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#201) | 0.594 (#33) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 22.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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