Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | EKU -138 APSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +15 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -10.0 (-25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -10.2 (-25.2) | 153.6 (+19.4) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -7.3 (-22.3) | 148.7 (+24.3) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -8.2 (-23.2) | 152.6 (+20.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -9.5 (-24.5) | 153.4 (+19.6) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-7 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#120) | -4.2 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#68) | -0.66 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#94) | -1.47 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#80) | 0.472 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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