Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -225 OSU +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -5.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -4.3 (-8.3) | 160.2 (+13.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -4.3 (-8.3) | 157.3 (+16.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -4.5 (-8.5) | 160.1 (+13.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -5.0 (-9.0) | 160.6 (+13.4) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | OSU 72 – 69 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2026 | IOWA 74 – 57 OSU |
| Mar 12, 2025 | IOWA 77 – 70 OSU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | OSU 82 – 65 IOWA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | OSU 90 – 78 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#4) | 15.9 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#11) | 3.02 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#9) | 4.48 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#41) | 0.624 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 31.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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