Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | INST +102 BRAD -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | INST -1.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -3.8 (+8.2) | 131.5 (-9.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -2.0 (+10.0) | 129.3 (-7.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.6 (+8.4) | 130.5 (-8.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -3.2 (+8.8) | 130.5 (-8.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | BRAD 75 – 68 INST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | BRAD 108 – 99 INST |
| Jan 16, 2025 | BRAD 118 – 65 INST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | BRAD 90 – 89 INST |
| Jan 27, 2024 | INST 95 – 86 BRAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | 3.5 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#104) | -0.13 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#109) | -0.39 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#88) | 0.506 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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