Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -175 GT +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +16 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -2.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -3.6 (+12.4) | 138.9 (-6.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.8 (+13.2) | 135.4 (-3.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.0 (+13.0) | 139.0 (-7.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -3.6 (+12.4) | 139.5 (-7.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | LOU 87 – 70 GT |
| Feb 1, 2025 | GT 77 – 70 LOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | LOU 79 – 67 GT |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GT 83 – 67 LOU |
| Feb 2, 2023 | LOU 68 – 58 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 11-6 |
| Home | 9-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#56) | 9.7 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#34) | 1.49 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#43) | 2.39 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#27) | 0.522 (#132) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.