Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NEV -188 UNLV +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +29 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -2.7 (+26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -2.6 (+26.4) | 142.6 (+6.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -2.3 (+26.7) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -3.1 (+25.9) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -2.4 (+26.6) | 142.2 (+6.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-10 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | 1.5 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#153) | 0.09 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#141) | 0.04 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#139) | 0.505 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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