Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | UCR -375 UCSD +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -15.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -12.5 (-0.5) | 132.1 (-2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -12.7 (-0.7) | 134.5 (-4.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -15.7 (-3.7) | 132.9 (-2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -14.5 (-2.5) | 132.7 (-2.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-8 | 7-10 |
| Conference | 8-4 | 0-0 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#92) | -6.8 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#165) | -1.74 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#153) | -2.12 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#195) | 0.397 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 5.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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