Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | JOES +900 RICH -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +23 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | RICH -10.2 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-31.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -8.4 (-14.6) | 156.4 (-21.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -7.8 (-15.2) | 150.0 (-15.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -9.9 (-13.1) | 154.6 (-19.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -8.3 (-14.7) | 156.3 (-21.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | JOES 67 – 65 RICH |
| Feb 22, 2025 | JOES 78 – 62 RICH |
| Mar 14, 2024 | JOES 66 – 61 RICH |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RICH 73 – 66 JOES |
| Mar 2, 2023 | JOES 83 – 67 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-15 | 14-9 |
| Conference | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Home | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.6 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#235) | 8.4 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#298) | 1.70 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.93 (#283) | 2.31 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#249) | 0.589 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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