Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | INST -200 SIU +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | INST -6.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.8 (+7.2) | 135.1 (-5.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.2 (+7.8) | 133.8 (-3.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.7 (+7.3) | 135.8 (-5.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -5.7 (+6.3) | 134.6 (-4.6) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | SIU 66 – 55 INST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SIU 80 – 65 INST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | SIU 86 – 85 INST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | INST 95 – 77 SIU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SIU 74 – 69 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#124) | -1.6 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#135) | 0.71 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#130) | 0.16 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#99) | 0.519 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 4.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 16.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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