Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | ALST +350 SOU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -10.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -7.8 (+9.8) | 127.8 (+2.2) | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -6.4 (+8.4) | 128.2 (+1.8) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -7.7 (+9.7) | 130.6 (-0.6) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -8.6 (+10.6) | 128.9 (+1.1) | 26% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-14 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-6 | 5-2 |
| Away | 1-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -19.4 (#345) | -6.3 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#338) | -0.62 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.50 (#341) | -1.15 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.310 (#346) | 0.472 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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