Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +275 USU -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +3 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | USU -8.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -5.3 (+8.3) | 136.6 (-21.6) | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.2 (+9.2) | 134.4 (-19.4) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -6.0 (+9.0) | 136.8 (-21.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.3 (+9.3) | 136.9 (-21.9) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | USU 80 – 60 UNLV |
| Mar 4, 2026 | UNLV 92 – 65 USU |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNLV 86 – 76 USU |
| Mar 14, 2025 | USU 70 – 58 UNLV |
| Jan 30, 2025 | USU 76 – 71 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-15 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-4 |
| Home | 8-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#151) | 11.4 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#187) | 1.68 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#188) | 1.82 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#165) | 0.569 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 80.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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