Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -150 RAD +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -2.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -2.2 (-12.2) | 143.8 (-7.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -0.0 (-10.0) | 140.2 (-4.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.9 (-11.9) | 142.7 (-6.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.9 (-11.9) | 145.6 (-9.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UNCA 74 – 73 RAD |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNCA 91 – 72 RAD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | RAD 77 – 53 UNCA |
| Jan 29, 2025 | UNCA 72 – 65 RAD |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 62 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-10 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#214) | -2.6 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#264) | -0.92 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#256) | -1.23 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#258) | 0.490 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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