Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -300 SYR +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +23 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -6.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -7.1 (+15.9) | 134.2 (+4.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -6.5 (+16.5) | 127.3 (+11.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.8 (+16.2) | 130.4 (+8.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.9 (+16.1) | 136.5 (+2.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UVA 72 – 59 SYR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | SYR 84 – 70 UVA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | UVA 84 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 31, 2023 | UVA 67 – 62 SYR |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UVA 73 – 66 SYR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.2 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 16.4 (#10) | 12.7 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#19) | 1.64 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.88 (#7) | 2.28 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#32) | 0.569 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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