Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | AF +1400 SDSU -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +32 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -18.7 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.1 (+26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -14.1 (-17.9) | 131.6 (+18.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -14.3 (-17.7) | 129.2 (+20.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -18.8 (-13.2) | 130.3 (+19.7) | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -14.1 (-17.9) | 131.8 (+18.2) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | SDSU 88 – 54 AF |
| Dec 18, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 58 AF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SDSU 77 – 76 AF |
| Jan 9, 2025 | SDSU 67 – 38 AF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | SDSU 77 – 64 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 23-5 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 14-3 |
| Home | 3-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 61.9 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#305) | 11.8 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#191) | 1.99 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#228) | 2.46 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#182) | 0.617 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 24.2 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 3.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 24.9% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 14.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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