Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MVSU +400 ALST -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALST +13 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -11.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-31.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -6.8 (-6.2) | 138.9 (-23.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -6.2 (-6.8) | 134.2 (-19.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -10.1 (-2.9) | 134.0 (-19.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -7.1 (-5.9) | 133.6 (-18.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-22 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 2-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 1-5 | 3-6 |
| Away | 1-16 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 56.8 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 87.4 | 71.6 |
| Massey | -35.2 (#347) | -20.9 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#335) | -4.22 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.30 (#337) | -6.53 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#316) | 0.160 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.9% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 28.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.3% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 26.0% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 7.8% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 58.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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