Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +333 AKR -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +2 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -15.3 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -10.6 (+12.6) | 132.0 (-0.0) | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -10.2 (+12.2) | 133.5 (-1.5) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -11.8 (+13.8) | 132.4 (-0.4) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -11.4 (+13.4) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | AKR 94 – 55 NIU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | AKR 73 – 63 NIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | AKR 80 – 70 NIU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | AKR 80 – 73 NIU |
| Jan 3, 2024 | AKR 73 – 51 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-16 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 2-7 | 9-1 |
| Away | 1-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#337) | 2.8 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.33 (#336) | -0.02 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.65 (#333) | 0.04 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#318) | 0.474 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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