Betting Lines
| Spread | PV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PV -120 TXSO +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | TXSO -0.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PV -0.7 (+5.3) | 143.9 (-3.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PV -1.7 (+4.3) | 136.3 (+3.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PV -1.1 (+4.9) | 142.5 (-2.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PV -0.6 (+5.4) | 144.2 (-4.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PV 70 – 59 TXSO |
| Jan 31, 2026 | PV 85 – 78 TXSO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TXSO 80 – 68 PV |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TXSO 79 – 63 PV |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXSO 93 – 78 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 13-0 | 10-3 |
| Home | 8-0 | 8-2 |
| Away | 5-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#261) | -2.5 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#188) | 0.16 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#196) | -0.00 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#115) | 0.551 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PV | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 58.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.8% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.