Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | FRES -1200 SJSU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -16.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -12.4 (+2.6) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -14.5 (+0.5) | 147.4 (-2.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -15.2 (-0.2) | 149.6 (-4.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -13.4 (+1.6) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | FRES 82 – 68 SJSU |
| Jan 7, 2026 | FRES 70 – 55 SJSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SJSU 92 – 68 FRES |
| Feb 5, 2025 | SJSU 94 – 91 FRES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FRES 69 – 57 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-12 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-13 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 0-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 82.4 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#229) | -17.5 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#187) | -3.09 (#334) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#170) | -4.49 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#241) | 0.368 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 24.8% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 81.6% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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