Betting Lines
| Spread | LMU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | LMU -112 SF -104 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SF -1.8 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -0.9 (+7.1) | 136.9 (-8.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -0.9 (+7.1) | 139.4 (-11.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -0.3 (+7.7) | 139.3 (-11.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -0.6 (+7.4) | 139.4 (-11.4) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | LMU 84 – 75 SF |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LMU 84 – 82 SF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SF 72 – 66 LMU |
| Dec 29, 2024 | SF 70 – 55 LMU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SF 82 – 59 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-9 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 7-5 | 4-9 |
| Home | 8-3 | 3-5 |
| Away | 4-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#122) | 7.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#84) | 0.75 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#111) | 0.82 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#79) | 0.550 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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