Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | ILL -650 MD +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +3 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -13.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -12.6 (-15.6) | 151.4 (-22.4) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -10.0 (-13.0) | 142.3 (-13.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -11.5 (-14.5) | 147.1 (-18.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.0 (-15.0) | 151.0 (-22.0) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ILL 78 – 72 MD |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILL 89 – 70 MD |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MD 88 – 65 ILL |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MD 91 – 70 ILL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ILL 85 – 80 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#3) | 10.2 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#15) | 1.86 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.08 (#7) | 2.86 (#49) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#13) | 0.595 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 41.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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