Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UPST -130 LONG +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -0.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -0.8 (+1.2) | 139.6 (+0.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -0.4 (+1.6) | 135.0 (+5.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -0.8 (+1.2) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -0.3 (+1.7) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-18 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 3-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#289) | -5.2 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#295) | -2.16 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.17 (#274) | -2.54 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#229) | 0.405 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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