Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
| Money | SIU -360 EVAN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -15.6 (-27.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -10.6 (-22.6) | 136.2 (+19.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -9.7 (-21.7) | 137.4 (+18.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -9.2 (-21.2) | 136.1 (+19.9) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -10.5 (-22.5) | 135.3 (+20.7) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SIU 81 – 67 EVAN |
| Feb 13, 2026 | SIU 86 – 60 EVAN |
| Feb 6, 2025 | SIU 68 – 59 EVAN |
| Jan 1, 2025 | EVAN 68 – 53 SIU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SIU 65 – 53 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-14 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#118) | -8.7 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#26) | -1.46 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.87 (#30) | -2.87 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#86) | 0.437 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 4.5 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 15.3% | 18.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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