Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -1000 BING +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BING +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -16.5 (-22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -11.3 (-17.3) | 135.8 (+8.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -10.4 (-16.4) | 134.9 (+9.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -11.0 (-17.0) | 136.9 (+7.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -12.0 (-18.0) | 134.4 (+9.6) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | UMBC 79 – 62 BING |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UMBC 78 – 60 BING |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 77 BING |
| Jan 4, 2025 | BING 87 – 82 UMBC |
| Mar 6, 2024 | BING 72 – 71 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-6 | 4-14 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 4-10 |
| Home | 5-4 | 1-9 |
| Away | 9-2 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#117) | -9.6 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#96) | -3.22 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#94) | -4.44 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#222) | 0.337 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BING |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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