Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -250 MD +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -1.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -1.5 (+1.5) | 139.8 (+3.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.2 (+0.8) | 135.9 (+7.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.5 (+1.5) | 137.0 (+6.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -1.6 (+1.4) | 139.2 (+3.8) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PUR 93 – 63 MD |
| Dec 8, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 MD |
| Jan 3, 2024 | PUR 67 – 53 MD |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MD 68 – 54 PUR |
| Jan 22, 2023 | PUR 58 – 55 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#57) | 11.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#63) | 2.18 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.74 (#61) | 3.35 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#49) | 0.650 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 12.4% |
Game Analysis
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