Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | MSU -150 WIS +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -6.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -2.0 (-7.0) | 142.5 (+18.5) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -3.2 (-5.8) | 139.4 (+21.6) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -3.3 (-5.7) | 143.5 (+17.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -2.7 (-6.3) | 143.3 (+17.7) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | WIS 92 – 71 MSU |
| Mar 15, 2025 | WIS 77 – 74 MSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | MSU 71 – 62 WIS |
| Jan 27, 2024 | WIS 81 – 66 MSU |
| Dec 6, 2023 | WIS 70 – 57 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#103) | 14.4 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#57) | 1.88 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.41 (#42) | 3.38 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#118) | 0.587 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 41.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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