Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -22.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | USU -7000 SJSU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +33 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | USU -24.9 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -19.2 (+13.8) | 150.0 (-13.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -18.4 (+14.6) | 151.1 (-14.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -24.3 (+8.7) | 150.9 (-13.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -23.7 (+9.3) | 149.9 (-12.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | USU 96 – 78 SJSU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USU 105 – 57 SJSU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | USU 85 – 78 SJSU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | USU 90 – 70 SJSU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | USU 82 – 61 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-9 | 5-16 |
| Conference | 15-4 | 3-13 |
| Home | 10-2 | 4-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 0-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.3 | 82.4 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#152) | -20.0 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#214) | -3.12 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#244) | -5.18 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#238) | 0.301 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 34.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 39.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 62.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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