Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ +200 VILL -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +17 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -0.4 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.6 (-16.4) | 143.0 (+10.0) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.7 (-17.7) | 139.1 (+13.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -0.2 (-17.2) | 143.0 (+10.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -0.4 (-17.4) | 143.4 (+9.6) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-14 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 11-4 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-0 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#60) | 12.9 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#101) | 3.23 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#90) | 4.28 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#101) | 0.660 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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