Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.0 Under |
| Money | RAD -200 LONG +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +9 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -0.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -0.2 (+8.8) | 130.4 (-15.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -0.0 (+9.0) | 125.3 (-10.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -0.6 (+9.6) | 129.4 (-14.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -1.0 (+10.0) | 130.5 (-15.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#238) | 1.0 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#260) | -1.45 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#273) | -1.61 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#247) | 0.368 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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