Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -0.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -0.7 (+1.7) | 130.9 (+2.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -1.1 (+2.1) | 126.6 (+6.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -1.1 (+2.1) | 130.7 (+2.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -1.4 (+2.4) | 131.1 (+1.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | LONG 90 – 74 RAD |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RAD 85 – 83 LONG |
| Feb 8, 2025 | RAD 71 – 69 LONG |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LONG 77 – 74 RAD |
| Feb 24, 2024 | RAD 88 – 82 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-12 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#237) | 1.3 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#297) | -0.53 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.93 (#298) | -0.52 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#281) | 0.465 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 25.4% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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