Betting Lines
| Spread | Pick'em Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
| Money | GTWN -120 SJU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +3 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -4.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (+37.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -2.9 (+0.1) | 147.7 (+43.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -2.3 (+0.7) | 147.1 (+43.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -0.6 (+2.4) | 152.3 (+38.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -1.5 (+1.5) | 150.6 (+40.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 16-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 10-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#135) | 2.7 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#145) | 0.98 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#120) | 1.44 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#101) | 0.539 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 45.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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