Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
| Money | UCLA -500 CAL +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -17.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -10.5 (+9.5) | 138.5 (-6.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -8.7 (+11.3) | 137.4 (-5.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -12.2 (+7.8) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -12.5 (+7.5) | 137.5 (-5.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | CAL 80 – 72 UCLA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UCLA 61 – 60 CAL |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CAL 66 – 57 UCLA |
| Feb 19, 2023 | UCLA 78 – 43 CAL |
| Jan 28, 2022 | UCLA 81 – 57 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#51) | -2.5 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#61) | -1.10 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#58) | -1.42 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#37) | 0.391 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 24.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.0% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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