Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | HAMP +155 W&M -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | HAMP -1.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.9 (-21.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAMP -1.5 (-4.5) | 150.2 (-19.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -0.5 (-2.5) | 147.2 (-16.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -0.5 (-2.5) | 149.5 (-18.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -0.3 (-3.3) | 147.1 (-16.1) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | W&M 94 – 85 HAMP |
| Feb 7, 2026 | HAMP 77 – 74 W&M |
| Jan 23, 2025 | W&M 94 – 83 HAMP |
| Mar 2, 2024 | W&M 85 – 73 HAMP |
| Jan 12, 2024 | W&M 73 – 61 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#228) | -1.5 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#222) | -0.15 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#221) | 0.21 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#199) | 0.496 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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