Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +425 MICH -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -14.6 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -13.7 (+16.7) | 144.5 (+20.5) | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -9.7 (+12.7) | 144.6 (+20.4) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -11.2 (+14.2) | 143.4 (+21.6) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -14.5 (+17.5) | 146.4 (+18.6) | 17% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MICH 77 – 67 MINN |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MINN 73 – 71 MICH |
| Jan 22, 2023 | MICH 60 – 56 MINN |
| Dec 9, 2022 | MICH 90 – 75 MINN |
| Dec 11, 2021 | MINN 75 – 65 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#120) | 20.7 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#156) | 2.86 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#130) | 4.34 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.655 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 60.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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