Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MINN +163 MICH -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +15 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -2.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -1.5 (-13.5) | 136.3 (+28.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -3.4 (-11.6) | 138.8 (+26.2) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -3.1 (-11.9) | 136.9 (+28.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -2.3 (-12.7) | 137.1 (+27.9) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | MICH 77 – 67 MINN |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MINN 84 – 81 MICH |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MINN 73 – 71 MICH |
| Jan 22, 2023 | MICH 60 – 56 MINN |
| Dec 11, 2021 | MINN 75 – 65 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 2-17 | 11-9 |
| Home | 6-11 | 13-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#235) | 4.5 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#206) | 0.97 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#265) | 2.23 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#113) | 0.535 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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