App State
Mountaineers
66
–
71
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Hercules Tires Sun Belt
Georgia State
Panthers
Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | APP +140 GAST -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +5 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -0.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -0.3 (-4.7) | 128.8 (+8.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -0.0 (-5.0) | 127.7 (+9.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.0 (-5.0) | 128.7 (+8.3) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -0.2 (-4.8) | 128.6 (+8.4) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | APP 52 – 50 GAST |
| Dec 20, 2025 | GAST 70 – 63 APP |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GAST 70 – 65 APP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | APP 80 – 76 GAST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | APP 81 – 71 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#159) | -0.4 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#133) | 0.26 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#131) | 0.37 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#69) | 0.502 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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