Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -190 IOWA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -1.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -3.0 (-1.0) | 155.6 (-9.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.7 (-0.7) | 157.6 (-11.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.6 (-0.6) | 155.7 (-9.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.9 (+0.1) | 155.4 (-9.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 28, 2026 | ILL 71 – 59 IOWA |
| Jan 11, 2026 | ILL 75 – 69 IOWA |
| Mar 13, 2025 | ILL 106 – 94 IOWA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ILL 81 – 61 IOWA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ILL 73 – 61 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#16) | 16.6 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#21) | 2.36 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#21) | 3.06 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.594 (#30) | 0.589 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 12.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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