Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +2 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -7.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -4.6 (+2.6) | 132.5 (-18.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.9 (+1.9) | 135.0 (-21.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -4.8 (+2.8) | 135.4 (-21.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -5.1 (+3.1) | 134.0 (-20.0) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MIZ 88 – 64 MSST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | MIZ 84 – 79 MSST |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MIZ 85 – 73 MSST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MIZ 88 – 61 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2024 | MSST 75 – 51 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#154) | 10.8 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#130) | 1.45 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#123) | 1.81 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#163) | 0.548 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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