Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -18.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -19.0 (+8.0) | 140.5 (+6.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -13.7 (+13.3) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -14.7 (+12.3) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -15.1 (+11.9) | 141.6 (+5.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | COLG 74 – 70 HC |
| Jan 29, 2026 | COLG 79 – 74 HC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | COLG 81 – 73 HC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | COLG 87 – 65 HC |
| Mar 8, 2024 | COLG 81 – 64 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | -13.7 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#220) | -2.39 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#199) | -3.15 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#188) | 0.381 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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