Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | HPU +145 WIN -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +9 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -1.5 (+10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -3.7 (+12.7) | 139.7 (-18.7) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.8 (+10.8) | 143.6 (-22.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.8 (+10.8) | 144.0 (-23.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -1.4 (+10.4) | 142.3 (-21.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | HPU 91 – 76 WIN |
| Feb 21, 2026 | HPU 89 – 87 WIN |
| Jan 14, 2026 | WIN 92 – 75 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2025 | HPU 81 – 69 WIN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | HPU 88 – 66 WIN |
Game Analysis
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