Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -7.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -4.4 (+2.6) | 136.5 (-11.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -4.8 (+2.2) | 138.4 (-13.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -4.5 (+2.5) | 138.7 (-13.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -4.1 (+2.9) | 139.4 (-14.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | MTST 82 – 71 MONT |
| Jan 18, 2026 | MTST 76 – 67 MONT |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MONT 89 – 85 MTST |
| Jan 26, 2025 | MONT 77 – 70 MTST |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MTST 85 – 70 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#145) | -2.9 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#144) | 0.46 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#149) | 0.66 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#146) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 28.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 5.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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