Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -1.0 Push |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +1 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | WIS -2.4 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -1.1 (+0.1) | 139.3 (-0.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -2.1 (+1.1) | 140.2 (-1.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -1.8 (+0.8) | 142.1 (-3.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -1.6 (+0.6) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | WIS 78 – 45 MD |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MD 76 – 68 WIS |
| Mar 14, 2024 | WIS 87 – 56 MD |
| Feb 21, 2024 | WIS 74 – 70 MD |
| Jan 26, 2023 | MD 73 – 55 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-8 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#99) | 11.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#125) | 3.63 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#117) | 4.39 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#115) | 0.674 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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