Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -15.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -12.1 (-7.1) | 154.7 (+0.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -11.9 (-6.9) | 153.7 (+1.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -12.1 (-7.1) | 154.9 (+0.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -13.2 (-8.2) | 157.2 (-2.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | IOWA 75 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MD 77 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | IOWA 83 – 64 MD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MD 101 – 75 IOWA |
| Feb 15, 2024 | MD 78 – 66 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#16) | 4.1 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#55) | 0.70 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#47) | 0.96 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#92) | 0.537 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.97 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 12.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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