Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +5 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -13.6 (-18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -10.4 (-15.4) | 143.4 (-0.4) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.9 (-16.9) | 148.6 (-5.6) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -10.9 (-15.9) | 149.1 (-6.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -11.8 (-16.8) | 145.5 (-2.5) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIS 97 – 93 PUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PUR 89 – 73 WIS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | WIS 94 – 84 PUR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | WIS 76 – 75 PUR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PUR 78 – 70 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#7) | 9.1 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#14) | 3.25 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#10) | 3.97 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#20) | 0.652 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.1% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 12.4% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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